ГЕОЭКОЛОГИЯ


ИНЖЕНЕРНАЯ ГЕОЛОГИЯ. ГИДРОГЕОЛОГИЯ. ГЕОКРИОЛОГИЯ

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Geoekologiya, 2020, Vol. 3, P. 82-90

MATHEMATICAL MODEL FOR RISK OF DAMAGE
TO ENGINEERING STRUCTURES BY HUMAN-INDUCED
THERMOKARST PROCESSES

A. S. Victorova,#, M. V. Arkhipovaa, V. N. Kapralovaa, and T. V. Orlova
a Sergeev Institute of Environmental Geoscience, Russian Academy of Sciences,
Ulanskii per., 13, str. 2, Moscow, 101000 Russia

#E-mail: vic_as@mail.ru

The paper deals with solving problem on the remote quantitative impact risk assessment for linear structures. The problem solution is based on a set of mathematical models of natural and thermokarst development for linear structures, describing an assemblage of developing human-induced thermokarst foci in the vicinity of linear structures. The analysis of the models allows us to predict the Poisson distribution for a number of af­fected sections of a linear structure, the correlation of the lesion parameters with the parameters of the com­plex of thermokarst foci, and to deduce a probability equation for a structure of a given length affected by the human-induced thermokarst process. We tested the obtained results at some plots within the north of Eastern and Western Siberia and the Far East.

Keywords: mathematical morphology of landscape, human-induced thermokarst, a linear structure

DOI: 10.31857/S0869780920030108

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