TYPES AND RATES OF HYDROGEODYNAMIC PRECURSORS DEVELOPMENT IN DRAINAGE REGIME OF HIGH DAM FOUNDATIONS

A. N. Marchuk^a,# and N. A. Marchuk^a

^aShmidt Institute of Physics of the Earth, Russian Academy of Sciences, B. Gruzinskaya ul. 10, Moscow, 123995 Russia

^#E-mail: marchuka@mail.ru

Short-term earthquake prediction using hydrogeodynamic (HGD) precursors at large dam is necessary for ensuring safety; and it is available with the existing measurement systems in the dam and in its foundation.

The most rational prediction method, different from that suggested by Vartanyn, Kissin and Osika, is the use of the drainage systems in the dam and in its foundation. Measuring the seepage conditions provides five HDG-precursors: (1) the total seepage flow as an integral indicator of change in the stress field in the enclosing block; (2) the flow of the most sensitive drainage wells in the regions of known faults and fractures; (3) piezometric levels in hydraulic communication with fractures; (4) drainage temperature; (5) geochemical analysis of drainage water. Drainage systems of large dams can detect HGD-precursors, from which the energy and time of an anticipated earthquake can be determined. HGD-precursors are validated against syn-chronous readings of other measurement devices of the dam. Examples are presented of the successful experimental earthquake predictions at the dams of Dagestan and Sayno-Shushenskaya hydroelectric power plant.

Our experiments can be validated for any high dam; there are about 50 thousand such dams all over the world.

Key words: earthquake prediction, dam, enclosing geological block, filtration discharge, debit, anomaly, precursor, rate, dilatancy, prediction time, tectonic stress, hydrothermal focus mechanism, water reservoir level

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