Geoekologiya, 2019, Vol. 2, P. 68-76


A. S. Victorov1*, T. V. Orlov1**, A. L. Dorozhko1, A. V. Zverev2
1Sergeev Institute of Environmental Geoscience, Russian Academy of Sciences,
Ulanskii per., 13, str. 2, Moscow, 101000 Russia
*E-mail: vic_as@mail.ru
**E-mail: dist@geoenv.ru
Moscow State University of Geodesy and Cartography,
Gorokhovskii per., 4, Moscow, 105064 Russia

The paper deals with the probabilistic approach to modelling the thermokarst processes induced by linear engineering structures. We have improved the previously published model and have determined the mathematical laws for the two semi-axes of the thermokarst focus (the lengths of the projections on an engineering structure and its perpendicular). The analytically obtained laws should be followed with the validity of the proposed model: the lengths of the projection on the engineering structure and the perpendicular must obey the lognormal distribution; the ratio of the lengths of the projections between them must have a statistically significant correlation and obey the lognormal distribution. The proposed model was tested at five sites in Eastern Siberia. For all sites, the proposed model has confirmed its validity. Thus, the proposed model can be used for remote hazard assessment and risk analysis for linear structures in the permafrost zone.

Keywords: thermokarst, remote sensing, pipeline, road, probabilistic modelling, natural hazard assessment, rick assessment.

DOI: https://doi.org/10.31857/S0869-78092019268-76


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