INFLUENCE OF SHAKING INTENSITY ATTENUATION PECULIARITIES ON RELIABILITY OF EARTHQUAKE LOSS ESTIMATION IN EMERGENCY MODE

© 2019 N. I. Frolova^1,*, I. P. Gabsatarova², N. V. Petrova^2,**, A. N. Ugarov^3,***, N. S. Malaeva¹

¹Sergeev Institute of Environmental Geoscience, Russian Academy of Sciences,
Ulanskii per., 13, bld. 2, Moscow, 101000 Russia
^*E-mail: frolovanina7@gmail.com
²Geophysical Survey, Russian Academy of Sciences,
pr. Lenina, 189, Obninsk, Kaluga region, 249035 Russia
^**E-mail: npetrova@gsras.ru
³Extreme Situations Research Centre, Vyatskaya ul. 35, Moscow, 127015 Russia
^***E-mail: garo@esrc.ru

The methods and results of seismic hazard zoning are investigated for the Russian Federation territo­ry and abroad. The input data used in the zoning procedure, aimed at revealing the boundaries of areas with stable seismic intensity attenuation parameters have been analyzed. The zoning procedure has been developed for determining the boundaries of territories, within which the macroseismic field pa­rameters (i.e., the coefficients in N.V. Shebalin's equation; the orientation of the elliptic isoseist axes, as well as the ratio of their semi-axes) show close values in each point. Examples are given in distinguishing zones characterized by quasi-stable parameters for separate regions, as well as in calibrating the com­puter model of the macroseismic field. The case studies are considered in the presence of a complete set of input data and under conditions of their insufficiency. The efficiency of the macroseismic field cali­brated models application in the Extremum system in order to increase the reliability of near real time earthquake loss estimations is shown.

Keywords: earthquakes, social losses, earthquake impact knowledge base, calibration of macroseismic field mathematical models, shaking intensity attenuation peculiarities, reliability of near real time loss estimations.

DOI: https://doi.org/10.31857/S0869-78092019523-37

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