VOLUME RADON ACTIVITY CHANGES AND THERMAL VARIATIONS IN THE WELL DURING EARTHQUAKE PREPARATION  

I.A. Kozlova*, S.V. Biryulin**, A.K. Yurkov***, D.Yu. Demezhko****

Institute of Geophysics, Ural Branch of RAS, ul. Amundsena 100, Yekaterinburg, 620016 Russia

*E-mail:ikozlova75@mail.ru;
**E-mail:serrega2009@gmail.com;
***E-mail:akyurkov@mail.ru;
****E-mail: ddem54@inbox.ru

Earthquakes are the phenomena that pose a danger to humans, engineering structures and infrastructure. The possibility of predicting earthquakes is doubted, but this does not stop the research conducted in this direction. The most physically justified probable precursors of earthquakes include changes in the volume radon activity and in temperature in well liquid caused by changes in the stress-strain state of rocks. From 2011 to 2018, the monitoring of radon volume activity (VRA) and temperature measurements in the Kun-1 well were carried out at the Yuzhno-Kurilsk (Kunashir Island) geophysical station of the IMGG FEB RAS. To find regularities, the data obtained were analyzed and compared with the earthquakes that occurred during the corresponding period. The Dobrovolsky model is taken as a basis, which allows us to estimate the radius of phenomena precursor manifestation. According to the model, the precursor appears before an earthquake with a ratio of magnitude to the logarithm of the distance from the event — K to the monitoring station greater than or equal to 2.5. The paper shows the successful application of the developed methods for observing and interpreting radon and temperature anomalies, which in combination with other methods will increase the probability of successful earthquake prediction in the future. It is shown that VRA anomalies can be caused by earthquakes with K≥2.

Keywords: earthquake, short-term forecast, soil radon, radon monitoring, temperature, temperature monitoring, magnitude, Kuril Islands.

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