PREDICTION OF MODERN GEOLOGICAL PROCESSES
IN THE TERRITORY OF RUSSIA AND CIS COUNTRIES
IN THE EARLY XXI CENTURY

I.V. Mal'neva
High-Mountain Geophysical Institute,
pr. Lenina 2, Nal'chik, Kabarda-Balkar Republic,Russia
E-mail: malnir@mail.ru

The paper considers the modern problems in prediction of hazardous geological processes in the XXI century. It is noted that the peculiarities of the prediction of the most hazardous geological processes (landslides, mudflows, etc.) are connected with global climatic changes and a technogenic factor. The assessment of climatic changes and the most largest catastrophic disasters was carried out with use of the typification of atmospheric circulation in the Northern hemisphere, developed by B. L. Dzerdzeevskii. The data of the typification for the period from 1899 to 2017 can be found on the Internet website www. atmospheric-circulation.ru in open access. The major disasters are considered that caused an activation of landslides and mudflows. The interaction of natural and technogenic factors is described during these disasters. The prediction took into consideration the changes in solar activity and features of space weather.

Keywords: solar activity, elementary circulation mechanism, landslides, mudflows, prediction

DOI: https://doi.org/10.31857/S0869-78092019160-69

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