DAMAGE ASSESSMENT FOR RESIDENTIAL AND INDUSTRIAL BUILDINGS AND STRUCTURES DUE TO TEMPERATURES CHANGE AND PERMAFROST THAWING IN THE ARCTIC ZONE OF THE RUSSIAN FEDERATION BY THE MIDDLE OF THE XXI CENTURY

Melnikov V.P.*^1,2, Osipov V.I.^**3, Brouchkov A.V.^***4, Badina S.V.^****5,6, Drozdov D.S.¹, Dubrovin V.A.^*****6, Zheleznyak M.N.^*7, Sadurtdinov M.R.¹, Sergeev D.O.^*3, Ostarkov N.A.^*8,
Falaleeva A.A.⁴, Shelkov Y. YU.<sup>4

1</sup> ANO “Provincial Academy”, Tyumen
² Sergeev Institute of Environmental Geoscience RAS, Moscow
³ Geology Faculty, Lomonosov Moscow State University, Moscow
⁴ Institute of Economic Forecasting RAS, Moscow
⁵ Plekhanov Russian University of Economics, Moscow
⁶ Gidrospetsgeologiya, Moscow
⁷ Melnikov Permafrost Institute SB RAS, Yakutsk
⁸ FASI “Vostokgosplan”, Khabarovsk

*E-mail: sciensec@ikz.ru
**E-mail: osipov@geoenv.ru
***E-mail: brouchkov@geol.msu.ru
****E-mail: bad412@yandex.ru,
*****E-mail: info@specgeo.ru
******E-mail: fe@mpi.ysn.ru,
*******E-mail: sergueevdo@mail.ru,
********E-mail: n.ostarkov@vostokgosplan.ru

This article is devoted to the issue of reasonable locating of additional ground water intakes under the typical conditions of intermountain depressions. One of the features of the mentioned depression is the occurrence of recharge and discharge hydrogeological zones. In many depressions, water conductivity falls abruptly upon the transition from a recharge to discharge zones. The Chu valley in Kyrgyzstan, which is a typical intermountain depression, was taken as an example for the study. The capital city of Bishkek is located here. The boundary between recharge and discharge zones divides the city into the northern and southern parts. Upon locating additional groundwater intake facilities in the northern part (the discharge zone), a significant decrease in water levels is observed in its southern part endangering the existing groundwater intakes in the city. The aim of this article is to suggest some quantitative assessment criteria for the location of new groundwater intakes, which do not create any threat to already operating facilities in the recharge zone. The considered additional groundwater intake facilities exert a draining effect on the areas at risk of waterlogging within the northern part of the city. We propose some analytical criteria for linear and point groundwater intakes, which are simple enough for use.

Key words: damage assessment, arctic zone of the russian federation, permafrost, temperature changes, thawing, residential and industrial buildings, bearing capacity of frozen ground

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