RESULTS OF ENGINEERING GEOLOGICAL ZONING OF BELARUS
TERRITORY BY THE ABRASION RISK AT WATER RESERVOIRS
IN THE CONTEXT OF GLOBAL CLIMATE CHANGE

© 2019 V. Е. Levkevich
Belarus National Technological University,
pr. Nezavisimosti, 65, korp. 1, Minsk, 220013 Republic of Belarus
E-mail: eco2014@tut.by

The paper shows the reasons for the intensification of risk-forming processes in Belarus caused by "aging" of existing and the arrangement of new water reservoirs. The shores of new reservoirs located in the territory of Belarus, intensively used in the national economy and densely populated, are actively reprocessed by abrasion, leading to the development of abrasion risk. The length of the abrasion coasts has increased by more than 20 km recently, which undoubtedly has an impact on the surrounding areas, causing loss of land and economic facilities. The goal of the work is to update the regional zoning of the country's territory according to abrasive risk, which should be taken into account in the forecast calcula­tions of the sustainable development of regions based on entirely new principles and assumptions.

In this work, we used the data of long-term (covering more than 40-year-long period) field observa­tions of the author over the abrasion process and the results of a science-based analysis. We propose (us­ing the failure tree) an abrasion risk development model and indicators characterizing the abrasion risk, taking into account the global climate change and related warming, affecting the dynamics and extent of the process of destruction and deformation of the coast. Based on a theoretical study of the mechanism for forming the dynamic equilibrium profile of abrasion coasts and the equilibrium coastline, a criterion is suggested that characterizes the stability and development of the equilibrium profile of the coastal slope required for zoning the Belarus territory by abrasion risk.

Based on the generalization of the observation results for Belarus water reservoirs and the use of the proposed indicators, we performed zoning of the country's territory by the abrasion risk, which is of prac­tical importance for making management decisions and designating engineering measures to prevent and mitigate risk in water bodies, as well as minimizing their effects.

Keywords: Water reservoir, abrasion, abrasion risk, processing, coast, zoning, stability indicator, dynamic equilibrium profile.

DOI: https://doi.org/10.31857/S0869-78092019418-29

REFERENCES

1.Kasperov, G.I., Levkevich, V.E., Pastukhov, S.M., Kukshinov, M.S. Metodicheskie rekomendatsii po otsen- ke riskov na isskustvennykh vodnykh ob'ektakh Respubliki Belarus [Methodical guidelines for risk assessment in artificial water bodies of the Belarus Republic]. Minsk, Pravo i ekonomika, 2007, 63 p. (in Russian)

2. Kobyak, V.V. Prognoz abrazionnykh protsessov na vo- dokhranilishchakh s transformirovannym urovennym regimom [Prediction of abrasion processes in reser­voirs with transformed level regime]. Extended ab­stract of Cand. Sci. (Techn.) Dissertation. Minsk, Belorussk. nats. tekhn. univ., 2013, 22 p. (in Russian)

3. Levkevich, V.E. Gidromorfodinamika pribrezhnoi zony vodokhranilishch GES Belarusi [Coastal zone hydro- morphodynamics at the reservoirs of Belarus HPPs]. Minsk, Pravo i ekonomika, 2018, 149 p. (in Russian)

4. Levkevich, V.E. Dinamicheskaya ustoichivost' beregov i vodokhranilishch Belarusi [Dynamic stability of water reservoir shores in Belarus], Minsk, Pravo i ekonomika, 2015, 307 p. (in Russian)

5. Levkevich, V.E. Dinamika beregov ruslovykh, nalivnykh i ozernykh vodokhranilishch Belarusi [Dynamics of the coasts of the river, bulk and lake reservoirs of Belarus] Minsk, Pravo i ekonomika, 2015, 202 p. (in Russian)

6. Longinov, V.V. Dinamika beregovoi zony besprilivnykh morei [Dynamics of the coastal zone of no-tidal seas]. Moscow, Izd. AN SSSR, 1963, 379 p. (in Russian)

7. Maksimchuk, V.L. Ratsional'noe ispol'zovanie i okhrana beregov vodokhranilishch [Rational use and protec­tion of reservoir banks]. Kiev, Budivel'nik, 1981, 112 p. (in Russian)

8. Mikhnevich, E.I., Levkevich V.E. Ustoichivost' beregov vodokhranilishch pri formirovanii profilya dinamicheskogo ravnovesiya v nesvyaznykh gruntakh [Stability of reservoir banks during the forma­tion of dynamic equilibrium profile in incoherent soils]. Melioratsiya, 2016, no. 4 (78), pp. 18—23. (in Russian)

9.   Mikhnevich, E.I. Novye tipy kreplenii meliora- tivnykh kanalov [New types of strengthening amelioration channels]. Minsk, Uradzhai, 1978, 128 p. (in Russian)

10. Pyshkin, B.A. Dinamika beregov vodokhranilishch [Dynamics of water reservoir banks]. Kiev, Naukova dumka, 1973, 416 p. (in Russian)

11. Shirokov, V.M., Lopukh P.S., Levkevich, V.E. Formirovanie beregov malykh vodokhranilishch lesnoi zony [Formation of shores at small water reservoirs in the forest zone]. St. Petersburg, Gidrometeoizdat, 1992, 160 p. (in Russian)

12.    Shaitan, V.S. Proektirovanie kreplenii zemlyanykh ot- kosov na vodokhranilishchakh [Design of anchorage of earthen reservoir slopes]. Moscow, Gosstroiizdat, 1962, 215 p. (in Russian)