CALIBRATING THE “EXTREMUM” SYSTEM MODEL FOR EARTHQUAKE LOSS ASSESSMENT IN THE EASTERN ZONE OF THE NORTHEN CAUCASUS  

Frolova N.I.¹, Gabsatarova I.P.², Suchshev S.P.³, Malaeva N.S.¹ 

¹Sergeev Institute of Environmental Geoscience RAS (IEG RAS) Ulansky per. 13, bld. 2, Moscow, 101000

² Geophysical Survey, Russian Academy of Sciences, Obninsk, Russia
³ Bauman Moscow State Technical University, Moscow, Russia

This research is aimed at the calibration of the “Extremum” system models used to simulate possible loss due to strong earthquakes. The parameters of the macroseismic field in the eastern zone of the Northern Caucasus are investigated based on the data set of earthquakes which have occurred there since the early 20th century. The study area is located around the northern structures of the Greater Caucasus and the Terek-Caspian trough. It is an area of high seismicity, part of the Chechen Republic and the Republic of Dagestan. It is known to have produced earthquakes of M = 6.2–6.4 in 1976 and of M = 5.0–5.3 in 1966, 1969 and 1984. The present study made it possible to expand the boundaries of the zone with “quasi-stable” parameters of the macroseismic field identified in 2019 in the eastern Caucasus. The zone mostly covered the source zone of the 1970 Dagestan earthquake and its immediate surroundings, and was afterwards extended to include the epicentral zone of the 2008 Kurchaloy earthquake. We compared the sets of basic earthquake parameters determined by different seismological agencies and coefficients of the macroseismic field equation obtained earlier by various authors, taking into account the direction of felt-effect propagation and the location of the active seismogenic faults in the crust. The observed values of seismic intensity and those computed using the “Extremum” system were compared. The calibration results complemented many sets of calibration data used for effective near real time earthquake loss assessment. They are recommended to be used in the “Extremum” system for assessing the parameters of emergency situations in the zones affected by destructive earthquakes in the republics of the North Caucasus (Chechen and Dagestan).

Key words: near real time earthquake loss estimates, macroseismic-field model calibration, vladikavkaz fault, earthquake source zones, quasi-stable parameters, the "extremum" system

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