ABOUT THE ORIGIN OF HIGH-DENSITY MUDFLOWS AND THE POSSIBILITY OF THEIR LOCAL FORECAST 

I. M. Vaskov^1,*, M. R. Tamaeva^1,**

¹ North-Caucasian Institute of Mining and Metallurgy (State Technological University), ul. Nikolaeva 44, Vladikavkaz, North Ossetia-Alania, 362011, Russia
*E-mail: vaskov_im@mail.ru
**E-mail: marina.tamaeva.91@mail.ru

The article is devoted to the origin of high-density glacial mudflows, determining the mechanism of their nucleation and development, as well as the size of the affected zones depending on changes in the kinetic energy of water-stone masses. The ultimate goal is to identify the possibility of medium-term local forecasting of the intensity of the negative impact of high-density glacial mudflows on people and the infrastructure of the territories. As reference objects, the most studied high-density glacial mudflow manifestations are considered that occurred at the beginning of the XXI century in the Central Caucasus and the Baikal region. From the point of view of prevailing modern ideas, glacial mudflows are divided into two groups by their genesis: (1) as the final stage of ice-stone collapses; and (2) as a result of nival zone degradation in high mountain regions. Recent studies have revealed the unity of the main morphological types and elements of valleys, in which glacial mudflows of the selected groups are generated, the main of which are: the presence of glacial pedestals and stone glaciers; and rock walls (the frontal parts of modern reverse thrusts) overhanging their circuses from the valley rear or side. Prediction of glacial mudflows of the first group is possible with a local forecast of catastrophic landslides, and a local forecast of high-density mudflows of the second group can be implemented in stages. At the initial stage, specific objects are determined by geological, geomorphological and glaciological features, i.e., the valleys with accumulations of loose glacial sediments in an equilibrium-unstable state, their total volume and possible maximum mudflow discharge, as well as the risk degree and affected areas. Then, according to the results of the previous stage, the identified threats are ranked by the degree of risk and possible damage.

Key words: glacial mudflows, kinetic energy, classification of mudflows, stone glaciers, local forecasting of high density mudflows

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