KNOWLEDGE BASE ABOUT PAST EARTHQUAKES CONSEQUENCES AS A TOOL TO INCREASE THE RELIABILITY OF NEAR REAL TIME LOSS ESTIMATION

N. I. Frolova^a,# and A. N. Ugarov^b,##

^a Sergeev Institute of Environmental Geoscience, Russian Academy of Sciences, Ulanskii per. 13, bld. 2, Moscow, 101000 Russia

^b Extreme Situations Research Centre, Vyatskaya ul. 35, Moscow, 127015 Russia

 ^# E-mail: frolova@esrc.ru
^## E-mail: garo@esrc.ru

A multi-factor analysis of the earthquake loss estimations reliability has been performed and the significance of various factors has been determined. Measures have been developed to compensate for the influence of the most significant factors on the reliability of near real time loss estimates. The ways to increase the reliability of risk assessments in the emergency mode at the expense of the “Extremum” system models calibration with the use of the impact knowledge base on the past events in Russia and the world are proposed. The structure of the knowledge base as well as the procedure for identifying zones with stable parameters of shaking inten-sity attenuation, vulnerability of buildings and population, and a rating of seismological services in Russia and the world are developed.

Keywords: earthquakes, impact knowledge base, rating of seismological services, mathematical models calibration, shaking intensity, damage to buildings, social losses, reliability of near real time loss estimations

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