APPROACHES TO ASSESSMENT OF GROUNDWATER CONTAMINATION RISK AT THE SITES OF HYDROGEOLOGICAL WINDOWS

I. V. Galitskaya^a,#, I. A. Pozdnyakova^a, G. I. Batrak^a, and L. S. Toms^a

^aSergeev Institute of Environmental Geoscience, Russian Academy of Sciences, Ulanskii per. 13, str. 2, Moscow, 101000 Russia

^#E-mail: galgeoenv@mail.ru

Two approaches to the probabilistic forecast of groundwater contamination risk using the stochastic modeling of hydrogeological windows are presented. The first approach is discussed by the example of groundwater contamination with oil products produced by the motor transport complex, the second one is exemplified by groundwater contamination with nitrates in the former filtration fields. Based on the situation analysis, the events determining the risk in the study areas were considered as quasi-deterministic and probabilistic. Com-parison of modeling results using the models with hydrogeological windows in the dividing layer and with their absence revealed a significant effect of hydrogeological windows on the exploited aquifer contamination and showed the need to take this factor into account in predictive calculations.

Key words: groundwater, contamination, hydrogeological windows, forecast, risk, stochastic modeling

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